The “Black Swan” for Banks?

The “Black Swan” for Banks?

On the Internet in particular, we are seeing a marked increase in gloomy predictions for economic developments in the near future. Whichever scenario you think is the most likely, a few things can already be described as “set”.

Goods Market Shock, Business and Financial Sector

Goods Market Shock, Business and Financial Sector

Part 1 of the article series focused on the impact of the goods market shock on the financial sector, specifically on expected credit losses. The second part dealt with the question of how this affects private households and what impulses from the demand perspective.

Increase in expected credit losses

Increase in expected credit losses

There has not been such a decline in the real economy since the oil price shock in 1973 and the financial crisis starting in 2008. Probably, the situation is without precedent even since the end of the Second World War.